GARFIELD-AF

Mortality, stroke, and bleeding risks at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years are calculated by the following:

Risk, % = [1 – (baseline survival)^exp(x)]*100

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All-cause mortality x = -0.306202287*female + 0.693789082*(heart failure) + 0.306120964*(vascular disease) + 0.26585298*(prior stroke) + 0.385407386*(history of bleeding) + 0.280133213*(diabetes) + 0.377903886*(moderate-to-severe CKD) + 0.489453313*(dementia) + 0.345481149*(current smoker) – 0.414591263*(OAC treatment: NOAC) – 0.18593561*(OAC treatment: VKA) + 0.157023564*(ethnicity: Hispanic Latino) – 0.609609055*(ethnicity: Asian) + 0.375675102*(ethnicity: Black/mixed/other) + 0.031050027*(age – 65)*(age ≤65) + 0.064594824*(age – 65)*(age >65) – 0.021535182*(weight, kg – 75)*(weight, kg ​​≤75) + 0.007678035*(pulse – 120)*(pulse ≤120) – 0.019304333*(diastolic blood pressure – 80)*(diastolic blood pressure ≤80)

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Ischemic stroke/systemic embolism x = 0.233182644*(heart failure) + 0.197919709*(vascular disease) + 0.800863063*(prior stroke) + 0.29883967*(history of bleeding) + 0.211995445*(diabetes) + 0.349516938*(moderate-to-severe CKD) + 0.513221391*(dementia) + 0.478831506*(current smoker) – 0.572199357*(OAC treatment: NOAC) – 0.352373263*(OAC treatment: VKA) + 0.039138147*(age – 65) + 0.01590016*(diastolic blood pressure – 80)*(diastolic blood pressure >80)

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Major bleeding x = 0.168950627*(vascular disease) + 0.782237771*(history of bleeding) + 0.316245771*(carotid occlusive disease) + 0.498686574*(moderate-to-severe CKD) + 0.24232543*(OAC treatment: NOAC) + 0.609713354*(OAC treatment: VKA) + 0.236620846*(antiplatelet treatment) + 0.176898047*diabetes + 0.043476276*(age – 65) + 0.004167103*(pulse – 120)